FINDING REASONS FOR FALLING/RISING MARKET
By Ruma Dubey
The struggling Chinese economy.
Devaluation of the yuan.
Possibility of a rate cut or maybe a status quo by US Fed on Sept 17.
Falling rupee v/s US dollar
Indian economy showing signs of losing momentum.
Parlaiment logjam.
Withdrawal of the Land Ordinance Bill.
GST Bill not getting passed.
Poor earnings season.
When a layman asks, “So why was the market up today?” one has to think and come up with a really good reason. China has become the de facto, all-round reason; it is like a one-size fits all kind of thing to explain down markets.
And apart from China too, as listed above, aahh, the reasons are so many! The markets are so volatile, it has become a joke to actually look out for reasons as to why the market is falling or rising.
Like yesterday, the long pending confusion over MAT was finally given a closure – the very same markets which had fallen like none pins when this issue raised its head, given a nonchalant, “so what” kind of shrug and it actually ended over 200 points down.
Today, one of the well-known world investor – Jim Rogers said that he was exiting India as he could no longer invest merely on hope, with the Modi Govt only talking, there being no action. He is the first FII to come out in the open and actually say this. The market’s reaction? It does not care two hoots – it is up over 300 points.
The realty sector is down and beaten up. There are various reports put out, most recent one being from Moody’s which said, “India's largest property developers will continue to face a challenging operating environment over the next 12 months -- including weak cash flows, flat sales and stagnant prices." The stock were beaten down last week and today, all realty stocks led the gainers with the BSE Realty Index showing a gain of over 5%. Out of the 13 stocks covered in the Index, 12 are up and only one, Phonenix Ltd is down.
There is a joke going around on the social network that the markets move up and down based on the investigations carried out in the Peter –Indraani case!
Take even individual stocks. Ambuja Cement is up today as Nomura has put out a report upgrading the stock. Bharti Infra was stuck to the top gainers with a Fevicol ka jod ever since CLSA waxed eloquent about the company’s future prospects.
So is today’s rise the correction of a bear market or yesterday was a bottom out? Now that is like asking will the Congress allow the Parliament to function or not? Somewhere at the bottom of your heart, based purely on fundamentals, it is apparent that this could neither be the end of the bear market nor could yesterday have been the bottom. Till China gets back on its feet, a few infra projects get off the ground, US gives a definite timeline of rate hike, this volatility is there to stay. And we will be left looking for reasons, both for a rise as well as for a fall.