MONSOON - SAB THEEK HO JAYEGA?
By Ruma Dubey
The hero’s entire family might be on the death bed or the heroine might have lost her home and entire savings, yet, the immediate dialogue which will be uttered with complete predictability, “ sab theek ho jayega!”
And this innate sense of optimism, this sense that everything will turn out right at the end, is probably what drives our Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). Long before the IMD started issuing reports of normal and all-things-looking-good forecasts, in early 2012 itself Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) put out a report stating that India could face a deficit monsoon this year. This was followed up a few months later by US based World Weather Inc which said that India could have a relatively dry spell in August and September.
Though both the reports were eyed with a lot of trepidation and filled the heart with a sense of foreboding, when the first few showers arrived, albeit 10 days late, the feeling was that probably, for once, the IMD, with its new technological upgrades and modernization, might have actually got it right and the Japanese and the Americans were wrong. But before we get out the bugle and celebrate this rare victory, wait, worry still looms large.
Many parts of the country, especially South India and tea growing areas continue to swelter in heat and worried eyes have started looking skywards. In parts of Andhra Pradesh, with less than 10 days left to complete sowing of green and black gram, the region has received only 24.32 millimeters of rainfall against the average 168 mm for June; a shortfall of 86%. In Kerala, monsoon has been deficient in the state since its onset on June 5. Except Kozhikode, all other districts recorded deficient or scanty rainfall this season. The state received 45% less rainfall – as against the normal rainfall of 173 mm, the state recorded only 94 mm. Karnataka has also reported a deficiency in the rainfall. Till mid June, there was a 68% deficiency in the state. North India continues to burn in heat; monsoon, which was moving rapidly towards UP, remained stalled over Bihar.
There is talk of “Talim” storm in South China Sea which may take the steam out of monsoon and thereby affect its advancement and low rainfall. There is also talk of ‘El Nino raising its ugly head, which in turn could affect the monsoon. Well, the IMD, optimist as always, voicing “sab theek hai” has stated that possibilities of 'Talim' influencing monsoon as of now are low. The IMD stated today that the monsoon progress is behind schedule but has assured that there is no cause for concern, yet.
The important word to note here is “yet”. We need not press the panic button yet but there is certainly the need to be extremely vigilant at this juncture. As such we are inundated with bad news all around and a deficient rainfall would only aggravate things. Unfortunately IMD’s track record of prediction has not exactly been “hallelujah!” And that is the reason why even when IMD says, “sab theek ho jayega” we do not have faith in the words.
And this lack of faith in IMD is not just shared by the people of India but many from India Inc, who rely on other private sector weather forecasters. India Inc too needs the right forecast – especially industries which are directly dependent on rains like agrochemicals, agriculture, power, consumer goods and even renewable energy. Those with hydel power are all the more tuned onto the path of monsoon. Insurance companies, mainly crop insurance companies also track the monsoon. Media companies too prefer private sector weather companies to give the right predictions.
Kanpur based Weather Risk Management Services has clients like Adani group, Bayer, Bloomberg, Dupont, ICICI Lombard, Safal, Pepsico, ITC, Reuters, MCX, Care and many more. It calls itself the Climate Risk Management company and is stated to be Asia’s largest weather assurer for potato growers and the world’s largest for chilly growers. Another equally big company is Skymet, India’s first private sector company to provide weather forecasts and weather graphics to the media in 2003. Its clients includes Times Now, Aaj Tak, Zee Business, Live Minit, Sahara Samay, Hindustan Times, The Hindu, Dainik Jagran, Rallis, Bayer, Nokia, Monsanto, Powergrid, ONGC, CESC, Reliance Energy, Torrent Powe, PTC, Tata Power Trading and a host of others.
Skymet’s report for June inference states that majority models show below normal rainfall for the season and the chances of drought have also increased from 10 to 20%. Its chance of below normal monsoon has increased from 40% in April to 60% in May.
Well, let us see who gets it right – IMD or the private sector forecasters or Japan and USA. We hope IMD wins and the rest lose, for our sake and for the sake of the country.