KISSA KURSI KA - HOW HIGH WILL MODI WAVE GO?
By SP Tulsian
The one big question on everyone’s mind, right from a commodity trader, shopkeeper, FII, industrialist, housewife, banker to stock broker is – who will win on 16th May?
The biggest democratic exercise in the world is on its final leg, with last date on 12th May. We are almost there at the goal post and the market has been angling this way and that, swinging to the various hush-hush exit poll numbers which are whispered in the hallowed corporate corridors.
From a complete swing to the NDA, the media is now covertly projecting that ‘Priyanaka’ could have caused the Modi wave to dissipate a bit. But then again, these are ‘media’ reports and one does not really know how true or free of vested interes.
Our personal reading of the situation is that NDA is likely to get 260+ seats. Look at the table given below to get more perspective on the same.
So if this is the expected tally, how will the market react? Well, if NDA gets anything around 240 seats, the market will remain more or less neutral. If the seat tally drops below 220, then the market could turn an ugly red and if NDA garners 270+, then bulls will come ragging onto Dalal Street.
What happens to the index? It is simple logic and math. Multiply the number of seats which BJP wins with 100x and that will be the estimated BSE Sensex for you; for eg: if BJP wins 230 seats – 230 x 100 = 23,000. Thus on 16th May watch the numbers closely and the interlink between BJP seats and index. Mind you, this is simple logic based on common sense, no complicated psephological calculations here.
The foregone conclusion here is that UPA or Congress is a BIG no-no and it could see the biggest routing out; that is one unanimous opinion which has emerged all over. And AAP will surely split votes, but Kejriwal running away from Delhi as CM, has dented AAP’s credibility, raising worries whether the party has the gumption to run a Govt as it’s now time to go beyond rhetorics and ideals. It will indeed be interesting times, the next couple of days and lets all hope for a clear victory, with less horse trading and no messy hotch-potch Govt.
* Updated on 10-5-2014 at 1.50pm., to remove some ambiguity in the article, posted earlier, related to BJP and NDA seat math.