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RIL Q3FY20 Estimates

By S P Tulsian
about 5 years ago

By S. P. Tulsian

Reliance Industries Ltd. (RIL) will declare its Q3 FY20 results (quarter ended 31st December, 2019), on Friday, 17th January, 2020. Our estimates, on consolidated basis, are as under:

(Rs./ Crore)

Sr. No.

Particulars

Q3FY20

(Estimates for Qtr ending 31-12-19)

Q2FY20

(Actuals for Qtr ending 30-09-19)

1)

Segment Revenue

 

 

 
  • Petrochem

38,660

38,538

 
  • Refinery

1,01,350

97,229

 
  • Oil & Gas

710

790

 
  • Organised Retail

42,660

41,202

 
  • Digital Service

17,890

15,619

 
  • Others

10,230

9,882

 

Gross Turnover

2,11,500

2,03,260

 

Less: Inter Segment

(-) 41,390

(-) 39,406

 

 

1,70,110

1,63,854

 

Less: GST Recovered

(-) 12,070

(-) 11,705

 

Net Turnover

1,58,040

1,52,149

2)

Segment Results (EBITDA)

 

 

 
  • Petrochem (21.5%)

8,310

8,927

 
  • Refinery (5.6%)

5,710

5,659

 
  • Oil & Gas (10.7%)

76

128

 
  • Organised Retail (6.1%)

2,590

2,322

 
  • Digital Service (35.1%)

6,275

5,324

 
  • Others

890

809

 

Total Profit before Interest, Tax, Depreciation & Amortisation

23,851

23,169

3)

EBIT Margins

 

 

 
  • Petrochem (18.4%)

7,110

7,602

 
  • Refinery (4.9%)

5,005

4,957

 
  • Oil & Gas

(-) 345

(-) 306

 
  • Organised Retail (5.4%)

2,290

2,035

 
  • Digital Service (20.1%)

3,600

3,322

 
  • Others

515

399

 

EBIT

18,175

18,009

 

Less: Interest Expenses

(-) 5,560

(-) 5,450

 

Add: Interest Income

2,335

2,527

 

Add: Other Unallocated Income

190

(-) 31

 

PBT

15,140

15,055

 

Less: Provision for Tax @ 21.47%

(-) 3,250

(-) 2,065

 

Less: Deferred Tax

(-) 1,145

(-) 1,638

 

Profit After Tax

10,745

11,352

 

EPS

2215117.60.

19.50

Note: % in brackets indicate margin for Q3FY20E

Key Assumptions:

  1. GRM for Q3FY20 is estimated at $9.0 per barrel, against $9.4 per barrel of Q2FY20.
  2. Singapore benchmark is seen at $1.60 for Q3FY20, which was at $6.55 in Q2FY20. This drop is due to sharp fall seen in Dec.19, when GRM went in negative, as key bunkering hubs across the world curtailed inventory, in view of new IMO Regulations.
  3. Crude refined volume is estimated at 17.6 MMT in Q3FY20, against 16.7 MMT QoQ and petchem volume is estimated at 10.1 MMT in Q3FY20, against 9.9 MMT QoQ.
  4. Jio Subscribers is seen at 380 million at end of Q3FY20, against 355 million as at end of Q2FY20.
  5. Retail area estimated at 22 million sq. ft. at the end of Q3FY20, against 24.5 million sq. ft. seen at the end of Q2FY20.