ECONOMIC SURVEY FY15 - SETS THE ROADMAP FOR BUDGET FY16

By Ruma Dubey

The Economic Survey has been tabled today, following the tradition of presenting this important financial document a day before the Union Budget.

This document is basically an annual statement which is put together by the Finance Ministry of India, showcasing the economic development during the course of the year. The draft of the survey is prepared by Department of Economic Affairs and cleared by Chief economic Advisor and the secretary Economic Affairs. The final version is vetted by Finance secretary and Finance Minister. The Union Budget is a statement for the future while the Economic Survey is a statement of the past fiscal.

In that aspect, the Economic Survey is an important document because it helps us assess the performance of the country in the past fiscal, allowing us to compare the actual performance with what the Govt had promised in the Union Budget. At the same time, it shows us the general health of the economy, based on which we can get a rough idea about what to expect from the Union Budget.

So what does the Economic Survey of 2013-14 present this time?  Basically a report card of the country for FY14, this time around, it presents nothing new. The statement is in the same vein as last fiscal. Growth remains an issue. The Survey has pegged the GDP growth for FY15 at 5.4-5.9% and the promise which it holds – FY15 will be better. Apart from domestic growth challenges, the adverse global economic climate also added to the woes, strangulating exports, which contributes to almost a quarter to the domestic economy. This is a realistic growth target and for once after two years, above 5% and the Survey is equally realistic is saying that growth of 7-8% will not come in before FY17.

The Survey has also very categorically ruled out rate cuts; it has said that the prospects of the below-average monsoon could hit farm output, which in turn will fuel inflation and this will make it tough for the hawk-eyed RBI, focused on inflation, to lower interest rates any time soon. Thus growth will continue to remain hemmed in. The good news here is that RBI and the Govt seem to be working together and against each other and that makes the working of both – RBI and the Govt easier, with each knowing what they need to work on, rather than expecting the RBI to work on promoting growth.

The Survey has also highlighted the need to rationalize subsidies on fertilizers and food, with the need to shift the focus from price subsidies to income support. In taxation, GST remains a loud voice and is expected to play a vital role in the indirect tax reform process.

Thus based on this Economic Survey, what can one expect, on a broader, economic aspect from this Budget?

• Moves towards fiscal consolidation
• Urgent need for subsidy reforms
• Improve revenue collection through reforms and better mobilization
• Roadmap for rollout of GST and could come into effect only in FY17
• No major tax changes
• Present timetable for bringing in Direct Tax Code
• Likely to peg its fiscal deficit target to 4.4 to 4.1% of GDP
• Sell stake in PSUs to raise funds and bridge the gap between revenues and expenditure
• Divestment target is expected to be raised to around $11 billion

As the countdown begins for tomorrow, the biggest financial event of the fiscal, lets wait and see how the Modi sarkar measures up to our expectations – being unreasonably populist or responsibly practical.