EGPYT - A TINDERBOX WAITING FOR A SPARK
By Ruma Dubey
The Great Sphinx of Giza would be watching over Cairo with a lot of anguish. The river Nile continues to nourish the country but the Egyptians seem to be moving from one revolution to the other. More than the Sphinx, the Tahrir Square has become more vital.
In 2011, it was witness to the ouster of the then President Mubarak. And then the world got back to life, thinking that things were tottering back to normalcy as Egypt elects its new Govt. Yes, the people did elect a Govt of their choice – the Muslim Brotherhood, led by Mohamed Morsi. But today, two years after the first revolution, this new revolution is boiling over. What is worrisome is that nearly double the number of people who voted for Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi a year ago now want him to step down.
Yes, we all make bad choices, not really knowing what lies ahead. The same has happened with the Egyptians – in their excitement to remove Mubarak and put a new Govt in place, they believed in Morsi and elected him. But the citizens are unhappy today as there are major security issues and sectarian politics has crept in as the country has become more polarized between Morsi and his Islamist allies pitted against seculars, liberals, moderate Muslims and Christians. They are also unhappy that he has not done anything for the country’s economic growth, which lay in shambles. Morsi does not want to step down as he feels that if does, the next person elected will face the same situation. The situation now is that the military leaders have given Morsi an ultimatum to resolve the crisis or else they will interfere. There is thus fear that the country could see a coup if the situation is not resolved soon. Clashes have broken out in the country as the protestors ransacked offices of the Muslim Brotherhood across the country. Thus at the moment, things in Egypt looks very liquid and with the military now in the picture, the country is at a dangerous threshold where the next transition might not be democratic and more worrisome, there is no guarantee that this next change, if and when it happens might also not be successful
Well, the fact that most of the TV channels in India do not even cover this news is a clear indication of how we view this – with complete disinterest. For us, Egypt is only a tourist destination and the current happenings have no meaning as it has little or no immediate impact on India. That might be true to some extent but the unrest is dampening the sentiments all over. Today, many blamed the fall of the rupee and the markets on the unrest brewing in Egypt. At the moment the Middle East looks like a tinderbox, with Syria also burning; only one spark is required and the entire region could change dramatically. But FICCI had conducted a survey in Dec’12 after Morsi was elected and stated that during the turmoil of 2011, there was a 21% decline in Indian business due to political instability and civil unrest in Egypt. And 69% of the respondents had reposed confidence about the safety of their existing investments in Egypt. Well, all that could stand changed as of now. Dabur, Marico, Asian Paints and Emami have manufacturing units at Egypt. It is one of the largest market in West Asia for Indian automakers and 3% of Maruti’s exports comes from Egypt. Last time, when the crisis got long drawn, world oil prices were affected and that is something which we need to watch out for.
At the moment things is Egypt are volcanic. Morsi needs to put the interest of his country first and then his own political ambitions. He either steps down and early elections get underway or he agrees to partner with another political party and work together in a coalition. The third option is the most undesirable and avoidable – he sticks to his stand and allows the military to take over and crush the dream of democracy in the country.
We live in a flat world today and to think that anything which happens elsewhere in the world does not affect us, is truly being very naïve.