EVENTS THAT WILL SHAPE 2016

By Ruma Dubey

2015 is gone and 2016 is in. All the partying is over, maybe the hangover still persists…..

For many, 31^st December is just the end of a month and the beginning of a new month. Yes, it means a change in the year but that’s something which has no real impact on our lives. The habits, traits, characters, routine which we had on 31^st are what you will have on 1^st Jan, 2^nd, 3^rd and so on. Thus spiritually or philosophically speaking (spirituality is the science of philosophy) this “new year” has no significance. But because we live and work in a material world, we need to follow a few rules and ways of the world; so in that context, 2016 is a new year and it brings forth hope in the mind that things will pan out much better than they did in 2015.  

As we step into 2016 with new optimism, there are few world events, which could have a bearing on the world around us; not directly but as a causation of living in a flat, globally connected world.  A quick look at the calendar of 2016. Mark these events….

More than looking at just within India, we are looking at major events across the globe as those have an equal if not bigger impact. As per the Chinese, 2015 is the year of the monkey.

• The IMF expects the Indian economy to grow at 7.3% clip next year, faster than even the Chinese government's trumped-up numbers. 2016 will be a turning point, in which a much younger and less technologically advanced India surpasses its neighbor to the east to become the fastest growing large economy.

• The long-awaited referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union is likely to be held this year. It is the first time voters will be given a say on EU membership for 41 years and the electorate will be asked: "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?” The most likely date for a 2016 referendum is June or July.

• The biggest event of the year will be the US Presidential elections, scheduled for 8th November 2016. It would have huge global consequences if the controversial Republican candidate Donald Trump is elected 45th president of the United States. Shudder to think that Trump could rule!

• Migration will continue to remain a big issue in 2016. In Europe, it will continue to provoke conflict between the left and the right, between those who see all migrants as refugees and those who suspect there is an economic motive in play.

• A global GDP growth rate of 3.5%, the latest IMF forecast, is lower than the 4.5% average that preceded the decade before the great recession, but it is better than the average over the past five years.

• Putin will emerge as a leader to contend with. At the end of 2015, President Putin has rapidly repositioned Russia from being the outsider rocking the boat to a constructive force dealing with Daesh in Syria and Iraq.

• Inflation in the US and reforms in China will define 2016. If inflation is picking up in the US and the Federal Reserve is perceived to be behind the curve, this could push US rates higher and reinforce the appreciation of the dollar. China will present its five-year plan and that would be an interesting set of reforms that we could see – more domestic demand driven than export oriented.

• The oil and financial sanctions on Iran are expected to be lifted within the first three months of 2016 and, once they are, many businesses could be affected or could be offered many new opportunities with the Iranian market.

• As China was the main source of demand for the basic building blocks of the global economy, analysts expect commodities to remain soft in 2016. Chinese economy too will continue to remain in the second gear.

• In June 2016, Switzerland will unveil one of the longest and deepest tunnels in the world.

• Rio de Janeiro will become the first South American city to host the Olympic Games. The event will take place throughout August 2016.

• The China-backed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), seen as a potential rival to the World Bank and Asian Development Bank has been formally established. It is expected to be operational in early 2016. The bank will hold its opening ceremony in mid-January and formally elect its president.

• The 13th edition of the FIFA Club World Cup will take place in Japan in December 2016. Also, FIFA will elect its next president from among five candidates on February 26, 2016.