FOOD SECURITY - WHEN HUNGRY, CAN WE EAT GOLD AND DOLLARS?

By Ruma Dubey

For us living in the cities, food might never be an issue; yes, the only issue is what to eat and where to eat. But for many across the world, the issue is - where is the food? Yes, in this new world of brands like Apple and  Mango, even today, people are dying of starvation and the number of hungry around the world is just growing. 

While the entire Europe is focused on saving Spain and keeping the Euro together, USA is concentrating on its presidential elections and unemployment numbers and China continues to align all its energies to rule the world and India tries to deal with a new scam every day and the rotting political system, there is a bigger issue at the doorstep – hunger. India might be the mecca for the world to sell goods, given its teeming population of over 1.3 billion but it is shameful to know that more than three-quarters of Indians eat less than minimum targets set by the government. And we talk of GDPs and current accounts and taking on the world with our economic might. How do we do that on hungry stomachs?

United Nations (UN) has put out a report stating that world grain reserves are so dangerously low that severe weather in the United States or other food-exporting countries could trigger a major hunger crisis in 2013. Food consumption has exceeded the amount grown for 6 of the past 11 years and countries have run down reserves from an average of 107 days of consumption 10 years ago to under 74 days recently. Food supplies are tightening everywhere and land is becoming the most sought-after commodity as the world shifts from an age of food abundance to one of scarcity. The climate is no longer dependable and with population only growing, there is growing concern that food scarcity will once again lead to a spike up in food prices, which in 2008-09 eventually led to social unrest around the world. So if Europe and USA are looking at Asia as their engine to growth, they need to first realize that the engine could run out of fuel.

As per UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), prices of main food crops such as wheat and maize are now close to those that sparked riots in 25 countries in 2008. FAO has stated that food prices have risen 1.4% in September following an increase of 6% in July. So one hand we have rising food prices when people are already hungry.

India has had a delayed but good rainfall and hopefully, we will once again have a rich harvest. We are not a major food importing country but current Kharif season has not been very good as foodgrain production is projected to decline by 10% at 117.18 million tonnes due to deficient monsoon and drought in some states. But the farm minister assures us that Rabi crops will more than make up for the deficit. Prices are not expected to be impacted as there is enough stock. That is what Sharad Pawar says.

Data of the first estimate of the kharif output states that total foodgrains production is expected at 117.18 million tonnes in the kharif season of 2012-13 crop year, lower than the last year but higher than the average production of 113 million tonnes in the last five years. Pulses production is estimated at 5.26 MT in kharif this year against 6.16 MT last year.  Oilseeds output is estimated at 18.78 MT from 20.78 MT, cotton production is estimated to fall to 33.4 million bales v/s 35.2 million bales last year and sugarcane production is pegged at 335.3 MT v/s 357.6 MT last year. Hopefully, the second estimates after the late monsoons will present a better picture of a bountiful harvest.

We might not yet have a crisis as such but given erratic climate conditions and more farm land being usurped for other realty ventures, there is no denying the fact that we are on the threshold of an impending food crisis. World over, not just in India.

So how to increase food production when we are at the mercy of the erratic weather and greedy politicians-cum-land sharks?

A few thoughts on the same:

• Increase genetic diversity – many varieties can be planted in the same field to bring down risk of crop failure and new varieties can be bred to maximize production or adapt to changing conditions.
• Bring more land under cultivation and an urgent need for Land Acquisition Bill getting passed.
• Reduction in subsidies and increase in investments.
• Investment and efficiency in use of water are needed – irrigation and water management
• Easier access to institutional farm credit
• Balance between producer prices and consumer prices by careful calculation of minimum support prices and import duties.
• More efficient food management practices in procurement, buffer stock and PDS. Surely major policy reforms are needed in this sector.
• Contract farming in India is not backed up by law and that needs to be tightened.
• Closing the gap between producer prices and consumer prices by eradicating the middlemen and linking them directly.
• India has made a report on adaptation to climate changes - National Action Plan on Climate Change. But it lays gathering dust. It needs to be aired and adapted to ensure food security.

It is like this. You can read this report (or never go beyond the first para as it is an issue which does not concern or even interest you) and shrug the shoulders and say that the author is hyperventilating about an issue which is so irrelevant. And hunger is something which happens to the very poor and maybe, more so in Africa; as it is not at your doorstep you feel that it is irrelevant and does not concern you.  Yes, you are right; you might never experience starvation but you will surely shell out more for the same food you are eating today and the sheer cost of food could eat away your savings. Maybe it is only then that one can understand the true impact of food security.