GANESHA AND GDP - THATS PRETTY MUCH THE AGENDA!

“Ganpati bappa moraya, mangal murti moraya!!”

As these chants reverberate across India, those on Dalal Street also fervently hope and pray that the God who wards off all obstacles and trouble, casts His merciful eyes on the index and sets it soaring, never to go down ever!

Households and street corners are getting ready to welcome the elephant God, marking the official ushering in of the festive season. The coming of Ganapati festival is the beginning of big time as this is followed by Navratri and then the biggie – Diwali. Marriage season begins soon after thus the coming of Ganesha brings in all-round festivity.

This is the time of the year which companies wait for – FMCG, Consumer goods, automobile, homes, jewelers, supermarkets, airlines and hotels. Along with festivity there is also the bounty of a harvest with the farmers which boosts most of the demand on which India runs. Sadly, the IMD has notified that the monsoon is in deficit - nearly 1/5th lower than normal till date in August. This has naturally raised concerns as this monsoon delivers 70% of total India’s rainfall and if this deficit continues, it could affect yields of summer crops like cotton, oilseeds, rice and pulses. MP, Haryana, UP, Karnataka and Kerala have received rainfall that is over 20% lower than normal. The hope that is that with so many people praying to Ganesha during the next ten days, emitting a positive energy, rainfall will come pouring down and wipe off the deficit. Faith can move mountains, right?

Along with Ganesha, we will also usher in the much awaited Q1FY18 GDP numbers on 31^st August. These will be watched minutely as one would like to see if the lingering effect of the cash ban still persists. These GDP numbers will be from April to June and the last month, June, the results of most companies for Q1FY18 show that implementation of GST from 1^st July led to destocking which in turn affected growth. The impact of this could also be seen in the GDP numbers. Yet, most analysts actually expect the GDP to be robust and are penciling in a rate of 6.8 to 6.9%. Thus next week will be all about Ganpati and GDP – these two will dominate the moods on Dalal Street.

So as we get ready for Ganesha and a long weekend, let’s all collectively pray that He proves to be a harbinger of good news inflow and keeps the good tidings going. In fact the good news has already come in the form of the Supreme Court verdict – it today declared the right to privacy as fundamental right under the Constitution. This means, making Aadhar mandatory would now be illegal and puts a big question mark on whether the scheme itself is a breach of privacy.

Bring on the festivals!