GDP saves the day!
From Our Research Desk
India’s growth rate of GDP at constant prices (2011-12) in the third quarter (October to December) of FY 2014-15 stood at 7.5%, while annual FY2014-15 advance estimate is pegged at 7.4%.
Quarterly GDP Growth Rates (at constant prices 2011-12) are as under:
Q1 FY15: 6.5%
Q2 FY15: 8.2%
Q3 FY15: 7.5%
FY15AE: 7.4%
Real GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in FY 2014-15 is likely to reach Rs. 106.57 lakh crore, as against the first revised estimate of Rs. 99.21 lakh crore, released on 30th January 2015 i.e. an upward revision of 7.4% . The growth in GDP during 2014-15 is estimated at 7.4% as compared to growth rate of 6.9% in 2013-14. The per capita income in real terms (at 2011-12 prices) during 2014-15 is likely to attain a level of Rs. 74,193 as compared to Rs. 69,959 for 2013-14.
GDP at current prices in 2014-15 is likely to attain a level of Rs. 126.54 lakh crore, showing a growth rate of 11.5% over the previous year’s Rs. 113.45 lakh crore (first revised estimate with the growth rate of 13.6%). The sectors which registered growth rate of over 7% are financial, real estate and professional services, trade, hotels, transport, communication, broadcasting, public administration, defence, electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services.
As any aam aadmi would guess, the laggards remained the sectors of agriculture, forestry and fishing with growth rates estimated at 1.1% (vis-à-vis 3.7% during previous year), mining and quarrying with estimated growth of 2.3% (declining from 5.4% in the previous fiscal). Construction and manufacturing are expected to have more modest growth rates at 4.5% (2.5% in 2013-14) and 6.8% (5.3% in 2013-14) respectively.
In agriculture, while production of foodgrains, pulses and oilseeds are expected to decline, horticulture crops like fruits and vegetables is expected to increase. Thus inflation may continue to remain under close scrutiny.
The key indicators of construction sector, namely, cement production and steel consumption have registered growth rates of 7.9% and 1.5% per cent, respectively during April-December 2014 as compared to corresponding growth rates of 3.7% and 0.5% respectively during the same period last year.
Coming specifically on third quarter, Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices at constant (2011-12) prices in Q3 of 2014-15 is estimated at Rs. 24.97 lakh crore, as against Rs. 23.24 lakh crore in Q3 of 2013-14, showing a growth rate of 7.5%. Growth rates of public administration, defence and other services was the highest at 20%, followed by 15.9% of financial, real estate and professional services, while agriculture, forestry and fishing continues to report negative growth in the December quarter.
The next key dates with respect to GDP will be Friday 29 May 2015, when quarterly GDP estimate for January-March quarter of 2015 (Q4 2014-15) and provisional annual estimates for the year 2014-15 are scheduled to be released.