HAPPY, PEACEFUL AND PROSPEROUS 2015!
By Ruma Dubey
As 2014 hobbled its way to the exit door, one could not help but think that we had witnessed history in Indian general elections and saw a renewed sense of hope and optimism. Modi coming to power has dominated pretty much the entire year and we now look forward to 2015 with more expectations. This new year will be a test, the time to deliver, to walk the talk. As the year closed and a swanky New Year was ushered in with new hope, a quick look back at the year that was. Its back to basics - an A,B,C,D... of 2014.
A – Arvind Kejriwal resigned as chief minister of Delhi and with him hopes now lay dashed about an emerging third front. The poor show by Kejriwal probably made the loudest sound of so many hopes crashing.
The iconic Ambassador production stopped due to falling demand and lack of funds. The car which has been an identity of India for the past 60 years is now a part of the past legends of India.
B – Black Money - Well, the topic gathered a lot of heat and one expected to see some big names emerging but nothing like that happened. The only names which came out was that of ex-director of Dabur, Timblo Private Ltd and some seven individuals.
BRICS emerging market nations launched a $100 billion development bank and a currency reserve pool, aimed at funding infrastructure projects in developing nations. To be based in Shanghai with India presiding over its operations for the first five years.
C – Crude oil was most certainly the biggest newsmaker of the year. At the beginning of 2014, no one expected the price to fall so much and it slipped below $56/barrel.
D – US Dollar appreciated against the Indian Rupee. The Rupee ended 2014 at Rs.63.03 v/s close of Rs.61.80 in 2013. It has depreciated by 123 paise in this year gone by and there is more to come in 2015.
DLF was barred by SEBI from tapping capital markets for three years due to failure to provide key information on subsidiaries and pending legal cases at the time of its 2007 IPO.
E – Ebola epidemic in 2014 was the largest in history, affecting multiple countries in West Africa. The death toll currently stands at 7857.
E-commerce, especially e-retailing has literally knocked the daylights off brick and mortar retailers. Flipkart acquired online fashion retailer Myntra in an estimated Rs 2,000 crore deal, lierally creating history.
F – Fiscal Deficit during the April-November period for 2014 which came in on the last day of the year came in at Rs.5.25 trillion or $83.08 billion, which is 99% of the full-year target.
G –Gold was lukewarm in 2014 but prices were less volatile v/s 2013’s 28%. Through the year, gold has lost 0.3% and was traded in a $260 range, although prices fell to a 4-1/2-year low in November.
H –Housing sector has never been so bad. The rising interest rate sapped out whatever little demand was there. But that dream house continues to remain out of reach for most in India.
I –Inflation, was down during the second half so much so that we had 0% Wholesale Price Index (WPI) for Nov’14 v/s 1.77% in Oct’14. The last time WPI was at zero or negative was July 2009. Consumer Price Index or CPI for Nov’14 was at 4.38% which was actually below the 5% target of RBI set to achieve in Jan’16. So for once, no thanks to anyone really, purely on good fortune, we have achieved the target so much ahead of schedule – a rarity in Indian context.
J – Jan Dhan has collected Rs 1,16,500 crore in savings in the first half-year period ending September 2014, registering about 5.8 million accounts. This financial inclusion program for providing banking services to villages with a population of 2000 under the road-map may be advanced to August 2015 from the earlier date of March 2016.
K – Kotak Mahindra Bank bought ING Vysya in an all-share deal at $2.4 billion. This, many said was the first sign of consolidation of the Indian banking sector.
L – License to open new Banks was finally given by RBI in 2014. Out of 26 aspirants, only two candidates were approved – IDFC, which was largely expected but the surprise was lesser known Bandhan Financial Services.
M – Malaysian aviation industry is in major turmoil with two airplanes owned by the Govt – Malaysian Airlines and one private sector owned AirAsia going down into the sea, questioning the very safety of flying in the skies.
N –Narendra Modi thundered to victory in India's election, trouncing the ruling Nehru-Gandhi dynasty in a seismic political shift that gave his party a mandate for sweeping economic reform.
O –Ordinance route over legislation. With no support expected from the Rajya Sabha, more than legislation, it seems to be an ‘executive’ type of working with Insurance and Land Bill going the Ordinance way. If Ordinances are becoming a substitute for legislation, doesn’t it indicate a very deep-rooted, putrid decay in the entire process of our democracy.
P –Great pride when India’s Mars orbiter, Mangalyaan reached Mars. We are the first country to ever get where Mangalyaan did in the very first attempt and that too on a small budget. Yes, we do ‘make in India’!
Q –QE Tapering was undoubtedly the most watched word by the market and the marketmen till October when it finally came to an end. This massive bond buying or money printing stimuli of a staggering $85 billion per month since December 2012 ended.
R – India’s rating by Standard and Poor's was restored to ‘stable’ after more than two years after it was downgraded. This reinstating of rating was on the belief the Modi will revive the economy back to its vigor.
S – Supreme Court scrapped 214 out of the 218 coal blocks allocated by the government over the past two decades. This was a body blow for companies that had invested in projects around the concessions.
Sahara’s Subrata Roy turned himself in after the Supreme Court ordered his arrest for failing to appear at a hearing in a long-running dispute with SEBI.
Swachh Bharat Abhiyan, or Clean India Mission, was launched on the birthday of independence leader Mahatma Gandhi aiming to urge people about the link between sanitation and public health.
T – Toilet’s have never been more in focus than in 2014. After Modi’s Independence Day speech about India’s poor state of sanitation, the private sector companies poured in donations to build toilets.
U – Ukraine crisis pretty much dominated world geopolitics with Crimea taking center stage and Russia flexing its muscles. The economic sanctions of Russia, falling rouble are all from the same crisis.
V – Vishal Sikka took over as CEO if Infosys, a rank “outsider” as the company tries to reinvent itself. There are a lot of hopes riding on him to boost sales and improve the faltering margin.
W – World Health Organisation declared India free of the crippling polio virus, making the country's almost two-decade-long, multi-billion-dollar effort one of the biggest public health achievements in recent times. India's last case of the wild polio virus was detected in January 2011 in a two-year-old girl in West Bengal. Three years without any new cases means a country can be certified as polio-free.
X – Xi Jinping, the President of China shook up the political world when he drove hard his anti-corruption movement. But the Chinese economy continues to slowdown. A gauge of China’s factory activity showed more sluggishness in December, with the world’s second-largest economy ending the year on a weak note.
Y – Yellen took over the new Fed Reserve chief and following the footsteps of her predecessor, gradually eased out printing money. All eyes now on when she will announce a rate hike.
Z – Zero Wholesale Price Index for November left everyone bewildered. It does not mean that India is moving towards deflation but surely puts the pressure on RBI to act on lowering interest rates.