HAPPY, PEACEFUL AND PROSPEROUS 2016!

 

By Ruma Dubey

 

As 2015 hobbled its way to the exit door, one could not help but want to close the door on it firmly and we now look at the new door of 2016 which has opened, with a renewed sense of hope and optimism. Modi coming to power and his eloquent speeches, the Parliament logjam has dominated pretty much the entire year and we now look forward to 2016 with more expectations - less talk and more action!

 

 

A – Auto sector is bracing for further bumps ahead in the new year after a roller-coaster ride in 2015 that also saw a record number of vehicle recalls. The methods proposed to tackle the pollution in Delhi has the industry up in arms.  

B – Bihar Polls. An eye-opener in the sense that it was the first defeat for the BJP and Modi; forcing a rethink on the way it is currently going about. First time, it was about development and not about caste.

C – China was most certainly the biggest mover and shaker on earth, what with its Yuan depreciation, crash of the stock markets and overall slowdown of its economy.

D – Declining exports. Exports declined for the 12th month in November, indicating that tepid global demand continues to be a drag on India's economic recovery. A sharper fall in imports, however, helped keep the country's trade deficit in check.

E – El Nino. This monster pretty much wreaked havoc all around the world. Heat waves and drought, unequal rains; all together have ruined crops and the farmer is today all the more exposed to the mercy of weather.

 

F – Floods in Chennai. This went on the show how rotten and decayed the metro’s of India have become. It also showed us how mindless development will come back and hurt us. But it seems unlikely that we will ever learn our lessons. The effect of these floods will be left in the Q3 numbers of India Inc.

G –GST. This was the most awaited Bill; it has been so for the past so many years. Petty politicking ensured that this Bill did not see the light of the day even in 2015.

 

H –H1B visa charges hiked. U.S is doubling the cost of H-1B and L-1 visas for Indian workers by $2,000, adding a roughly $400 million annual bill to the Indian IT industry, which has become a punching bag for USA’s oncoming elections in 2016.

 

I –Interest rates. The RBI Governor, Raghuram Rajan did what he could do best – reduced rates thrice this year, bringing it down totally by 0.75%. Transmission though continues to remain an issue.

 

J – Janet Yellen. She was undoubtedly the most watched woman. Through the entire second half of 2015, she kept the world guessing – when will the US reverse it’s near-zero interest rate cycle. She finally ended the uncertainty in December with a token hike; at least it has begun.

 

K –Kejriwal. He is most certainly the most talked about man on this first day of 2016 as he takes a concrete initiative to improve the quality of air in Delhi; at least he has tried to DO something! Kudos!

 

L – Logjam of the Parliament. We have grandiose plans and great ideas with even greater slogans but what is the point of it all if there is no legislation? The entire year, the Parliament has witnessed more adjournments than business.

 

M – Maggi. This one food item, that too an instant food, had the entire country begging for more. The ban did not scare people off; it has in fact led to people eating more, hoarding more Maggi at home than dal and chawal. It remains a winning brand for Nestle, notwithstanding all this ongoing brouhaha.

 

N –NITI Aayog. The Planning Commission was kicked out in 2014 and it was expected this newly established think tank would be different. Nothing much happened here through 2015 but 2016 could see this become an old wine in a new bottle. It is expected to announce a 10-year plan, starting from 2017-18 as the existing 5-year Plan ends in 2017. It will remain a planning body for the Center and the state.

 

O – Oil was most certainly the biggest newsmaker of the year. From over $100/barrel, we are today looking at $35/barrel and some are talking of it slipping down even further. OPEC also announced that despite the falling price, it was sticking to its production target of 30 million barrels per day, doing nothing to correct oil imbalances due to new oil supply from USA and weak global demand.

P – Paris Summit. 195 nation leaders met for 17 days to reach an accord on climate change and this was 13-days after a deadly terrorist attack in Paris. The Paris deal committed 186 of the 195 countries attending the conference to cut the growth of their greenhouse gas emissions. The Agreement is likely to encourage banks and investment funds across the world to move their loan and stock portfolios from coal and oil to renewable energy, like wind and solar.

 

Q –Quarterly earnings. The first two quarters for Indian Inc have not exactly been great. Q2 was more disappointing than Q1. Now as we look ahead at Q3 and Q4, the outlook at least as of now does not look good as nothing much has changed on the ground level since Q2.

R – Refugee crisis. More than a million migrants and refugees crossed into Europe in 2015, sparking a crisis as countries struggle to cope with the influx, and creating division in the EU over how best to deal with resettling people. The figure covers entries via six European Union nations - Greece, Bulgaria, Italy, Spain, Malta and Cyprus.

S – Strategic Debt Restructuring or SDR. Electrosteel Castings, Jyoti Structures, Monnet Ispat, Lanco Teesta, Gammon India and VISA Steel; all these companies have been taken over by its lenders where debt is being swapped for equity and then company is offered for sale. It is imperative for at least one company in this SDR scheme to show that it has found a buyer. Till date, not a single lender has been able to sell stake under SDR.

T – Tsipras. The current prime minister of Greece, first took the world by winning the elections with a thumping majority and then made ‘referendum’ into a household word when he sought approval for the IMF bailout and further austerities.

 

U – US FDA. It struck a chord of panic across Indian pharma companies with its spate of warnings letters and inspections. Sun Pharma, Dr.Reddys, were the new recipients of this letter from FDA, prompting one to rethink how some of these “best” pharma companies of India are run. 

V – Volkswagen. A German auto maker, that too with a reputation as high as Volkswagen actually lying and cheating, that too in USA was simply too shocking.  It just goes on to show that no one, simply no one is above greed!

W – World Health Organisation declared India free of the crippling polio virus, making the country's almost two-decade-long, multi-billion-dollar effort one of the biggest public health achievements in recent times. India's last case of the wild polio virus was detected in January 2011 in a two-year-old girl in West Bengal. Three years without any new cases means a country can be certified as polio-free.

 

X – Xenophobia. This is supposed to be a dislike for people of other countries. But in India, we witnessed this feeling for our countrymen. Scarily, it is only increasing….

 

Y – Yoga. The United Nations declared 21^st June as World Yoga Day, a bog diplomatic victory for Modi and India. It was day of ad blitzkrieg. Lenovo selling Yoga laptops, Spicejet’s in the air yoga session, various yoga packages being offered by umpteen number of yoga institutes; it went on and on. And that shows that by the time we hit 21^st June 2016, the India yoga industry would have become huge.

 

Z – Zero. It is zero tolerance to the word, “intolerance”. It was the most abused and used word of 2015, creating huge controversies and needless debates when there are really more issues at the core leading to this intolerance.

 

 

By Ruma Dubey

 

As 2015 hobbled its way to the exit door, one could not help but think that we had witnessed history in Indian general elections and saw a renewed sense of hope and optimism. Modi coming to power and his eloquent speeches, the Parliament logjam has dominated pretty much the entire year and we now look forward to 2016 with more expectations. This new year will be a test, the time to deliver, to walk the talk. As the year closed and a swanky New Year was ushered in with new hope, a quick look back at the year that was. Its back to basics - an A,B,C,D... of 2015.

 

A – Auto sector is bracing for further bumps ahead in the new year after a roller-coaster ride in 2015 that also saw a record number of vehicle recalls. The methods proposed to tackle the pollution in Delhi has the industry up in arms.  

B – Bihar Polls. An eye-opener in the sense that it was the first defeat for the BJP and Modi; forcing a rethink on the way it is currently going about. First time, it was about development and not about caste.

C – China was most certainly the biggest mover and shaker on earth, what with its Yuan depreciation, crash of the stock markets and overall slowdown of its economy.

D – Declining exports. Exports declined for the 12th month in November, indicating that tepid global demand continues to be a drag on India's economic recovery. A sharper fall in imports, however, helped keep the country's trade deficit in check.

E – El Nino. This monster pretty much wreaked havoc all around the world. Heat waves and drought, unequal rains; all together have ruined crops and the farmer is today all the more exposed to the mercy of weather.

 

F – Floods in Chennai. This went on the show how rotten and decayed the metro’s of India have become. It also showed us how mindless development will come back and hurt us. But it seems unlikely that we will ever learn our lessons. The effect of these floods will be left in the Q3 numbers of India Inc.

G –GST. This was the most awaited Bill; it has been so for the past so many years. Petty politicking ensured that this Bill did not see the light of the day even in 2015.

 

H –H1B visa charges hiked. U.S is doubling the cost of H-1B and L-1 visas for Indian workers by $2,000, adding a roughly $400 million annual bill to the Indian IT industry, which has become a punching bag for USA’s oncoming elections in 2016.

 

I –Interest rates. The RBI Governor, Raghuram Rajan did what he could do best – reduced rates thrice this year, bringing it down totally by 0.75%. Transmission though continues to remain an issue.

 

J – Janet Yellen. She was undoubtedly the most watched woman. Through the entire second half of 2015, she kept the world guessing – when will the US reverse it’s near-zero interest rate cycle. She finally ended the uncertainty in December with a token hike; at least it has begun.

 

K –Kejriwal. He is most certainly the most talked about man on this first day of 2016 as he takes a concrete initiative to improve the quality of air in Delhi; at least he has tried to DO something! Kudos!

 

L – Logjam of the Parliament. We have grandiose plans and great ideas with even greater slogans but what is the point of it all if there is no legislation? The entire year, the Parliament has witnessed more adjournments than business.

 

M – Maggi. This one food item, that too an instant food, had the entire country begging for more. The ban did not scare people off; it has in fact led to people eating more, hoarding more Maggi at home than dal and chawal. It remains a winning brand for Nestle, notwithstanding all this ongoing brouhaha.

 

N –NITI Aayog. The Planning Commission was kicked out in 2014 and it was expected this newly established think tank would be different. Nothing much happened here through 2015 but 2016 could see this become an old wine in a new bottle. It is expected to announce a 10-year plan, starting from 2017-18 as the existing 5-year Plan ends in 2017. It will remain a planning body for the Center and the state.

 

O – Oil was most certainly the biggest newsmaker of the year. From over $100/barrel, we are today looking at $35/barrel and some are talking of it slipping down even further. OPEC also announced that despite the falling price, it was sticking to its production target of 30 million barrels per day, doing nothing to correct oil imbalances due to new oil supply from USA and weak global demand.

P – Paris Summit. 195 nation leaders met for 17 days to reach an accord on climate change and this was 13-days after a deadly terrorist attack in Paris. The Paris deal committed 186 of the 195 countries attending the conference to cut the growth of their greenhouse gas emissions. The Agreement is likely to encourage banks and investment funds across the world to move their loan and stock portfolios from coal and oil to renewable energy, like wind and solar.

 

Q –Quarterly earnings. The first two quarters for Indian Inc have not exactly been great. Q2 was more disappointing than Q1. Now as we look ahead at Q3 and Q4, the outlook at least as of now does not look good as nothing much has changed on the ground level since Q2.

R – Refugee crisis. More than a million migrants and refugees crossed into Europe in 2015, sparking a crisis as countries struggle to cope with the influx, and creating division in the EU over how best to deal with resettling people. The figure covers entries via six European Union nations - Greece, Bulgaria, Italy, Spain, Malta and Cyprus.

S – Strategic Debt Restructuring or SDR. Electrosteel Castings, Jyoti Structures, Monnet Ispat, Lanco Teesta, Gammon India and VISA Steel; all these companies have been taken over by its lenders where debt is being swapped for equity and then company is offered for sale. It is imperative for at least one company in this SDR scheme to show that it has found a buyer. Till date, not a single lender has been able to sell stake under SDR.

T – Tsipras. The current prime minister of Greece, first took the world by winning the elections with a thumping majority and then made ‘referendum’ into a household word when he sought approval for the IMF bailout and further austerities.

 

U – US FDA. It struck a chord of panic across Indian pharma companies with its spate of warnings letters and inspections. Sun Pharma, Dr.Reddys, were the new recipients of this letter from FDA, prompting one to rethink how some of these “best” pharma companies of India are run. 

V – Volkswagen. A German auto maker, that too with a reputation as high as Volkswagen actually lying and cheating, that too in USA was simply too shocking.  It just goes on to show that no one, simply no one is above greed!

W – World Health Organisation declared India free of the crippling polio virus, making the country's almost two-decade-long, multi-billion-dollar effort one of the biggest public health achievements in recent times. India's last case of the wild polio virus was detected in January 2011 in a two-year-old girl in West Bengal. Three years without any new cases means a country can be certified as polio-free.

 

X – Xenophobia. This is supposed to be a dislike for people of other countries. But in India, we witnessed this feeling for our countrymen. Scarily, it is only increasing….

 

Y – Yoga. The United Nations declared 21^st June as World Yoga Day, a bog diplomatic victory for Modi and India. It was day of ad blitzkrieg. Lenovo selling Yoga laptops, Spicejet’s in the air yoga session, various yoga packages being offered by umpteen number of yoga institutes; it went on and on. And that shows that by the time we hit 21^st June 2016, the India yoga industry would have become huge.

 

Z – Zero. It is zero tolerance to the word, “intolerance”. It was the most abused and used word of 2015, creating huge controversies and needless debates when there are really more issues at the core leading to this intolerance.