IMD - WHY IT IS NEVER ABLE TO PREDICT A DROUGHT?
By Ruma Dubey
The question is not whether you can trust the monsoon predictions of our Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). The question is whether IMD says things which we all want to hear and not what we do not want to hear.
The first monsoon forecast of IMD usually comes in by end of April and as usual, probably more out of habit than out of science, the IMD has predicted a normal monsoon for this year. It has said that rainfall would be 98% of the long-period average. The private sector weather man, Skymet, nine days before IMD also predicted a normal rainfall for the year; its reading came in at 103%. In the weatherman’s language, any rainfall figure between 98 and 104 is stated to be “normal”. And yesterday, IMD stated that rainfall is likely to hit Kerala by 3rd of June.
That’s nice to know; precisely what we all want to hear. But somehow, IMDs predictions have not been reliable. Like last year, in 2012, in May, IMD had stated that monsoons will arrive on time in Kerala, on 1st June. In April’12, like this year, IMD had stated that monsoon will be normal and this was for the third consecutive time, it had predicted normal monsoon. But by July, the whole country already knew that rainfall was deficient and we were staring hard at a drought, yet the IMD continued with its estimations and said that rainfall is expected to pick up. Finally in August, it officially declared what we all already knew – it was a drought. It turned out to be the second most deficient monsoon in a decade.
Prior to this, three more times, IMD has gone ahead and predicted normal monsoon when there have been droughts. In 2002, 2004 and then 2009, IMD stuck to its normal estimation while the country reeled under severe drought. 2009 was probably one of the worst droughts and even in June, IMD stuck to its normal note. In 2002, the difference between what the IMD had predicted and the actual rainfall was a deficiency of 20%, in 2004 the gap was a deficiency of 13% and in 2009, it was at 18%.
Does this mean that IMD just does not know to predict a drought when it see’s one? Or is it that though it see’s the drought, it is asked to turn a blind eye? Firstly, IMD is still upgrading its techonology. It has now tied up with weather offices of Britain, USA, Japan, Australia, and South Korea. It is getting more radars and observatories while going through a complete overhaul of its mathematical model. It has also collaborated with the National Centre for Ocean Information Services, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, and the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting. By 2017, IMD is hopeful of giving more accurate monsoon predictions. So what is means is that till then, we will kind of shoot in the dark, hoping to hit the target purely on luck and gut feel.
But what is also coming forth is that when there is a drought, the IMD is “asked” to present a “normal” picture. The IMD scientists are immense pressure to always show a positive story even if the model they are staring at shows a depressing story. In 2009, a scientist of IMD stated that though the model indicated that rainfall was 90%, indicating a drought, IMD had to yet give out a 93% forecast . The IMD, a day before the estimation goes public, send it to the PMO and the a few secretaries of some ministries and the department was told to “temper” it down.
The Govt and IMD, as much as possible, do not give out drought predictions as it could lead to a panic situation and in most cases, leads to hoarding, pushing up the prices even before the effects of drought are actually felt. Yes, a drought prediction in advance could help farmers prepare themselves better but the effect of hoarding is said to be even worse.
We Indians do not like bad news; always want “happy endings”. And the IMD sometimes plays on this. That is morally wrong but it is better than bearing the ill effects of telling the truth. So when there is a drought and IMD is once again proven wrong, you now know why…
Hopefully, this year IMD’s predictions will be spot on; India simply cannot afford a drought!