IN SHAKESPEARE LAND, "TO LEAVE OR REMAIN" IS THE BIG QUESTION
By Ruma Dubey
Leave or Remain. That is the big question looming large, keeping the entire world on tenterhooks. Stocks, bonds, currency, gold and other metals, all are in a “stand-by” mode, not knowing which side to go.
Common sense for those of us sitting here in India, having a view from the outside to the inside says that “Remain” will win the referendum tomorrow. The murder of the young Brtiish leader, Jo Cox has bolstered the strength of “Remain” as many feel her death should not go in vain. Britain will continue to remain with European Union as the repercussions are too deep and could lead to a contagion Leave – Scotland, Ireland and maybe more countries in the EU who have been thinking about it but could not muster the courage to do it, might also take similar steps. But again, in a democracy, one does not know which side the vote could swing – that is the only niggling sense of uncertainty while the subconscious says that “Remain” it will be.
While the life long battle between the conscious and subconscious continues, while the British get ready to vote tomorrow, lets quickly try and understand the nuts and bolts of this referendum. The referendum will get underway tomorrow at 7 AM and will end at 10 PM (British time).
So who all will be eligible to vote?
British, Irish and Commonwealth citizens over 18, resident in the UK, along with UK nationals living abroad who have been on the electoral register in the UK in the past 15 years can vote. Members of the House of Lords and Commonwealth citizens in Gibraltar will also be eligible, unlike in a general election. All citizens of EU who are resident in the UK and registered to vote can aslo vote, except those from Ireland, Malta and Cyprus.
How will they vote?
After having registered to vote, like in India, they will get a card which will tell them the venue where they need to go and vote. So like in the general election, the Britons will go to the polling booth. They will be given a paper with the question, "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?" They will be given a pen and they need to mark X in the box of their choice – Yes or No and then they put the paper in the ballot box. Voting through post is also allowed (rules and pre-registarion) for those who cannot make it to the venue.
Who supports “Leave” and who supports “Remain”?
Over 50% of Conservative MPs, many MPs from Labour Party and UK Independence Party, which has won the European Elections in May is supporting “Leave”. On the other hand, PM Cameron, sixteen members of his cabinet and many other fringe parties want to “Remain”. France, Germany supports stay and so does US President Obama. The majority of Britain's 650 MPs are in favour of Britain staying.
What is the justification for “Leave”?
Their grouse is that being in the EU is stifling the growth of Britain due to stringent and too many rules; the word doing the rounds is “too much red tape”. They also lament about the billions of pounds Britain has to pay each year as membership fee which does not even fetch the required returns. The EU members do not need a British visa to work and live there and this is also irking many as Britons feel that they are losing opportunities to the EUs. In the same note, the Britons too require no visa to work and live in EU. The “Leave “ fear that moves are being made to get this EU union even more closer and this they do not want. The issue of immigrants is the crux of this Brexit too.
What is the justification to “Remain”?
They feel that EU membership propels business and growth, making trade between countries easy due to free movement. They argue that immigrants should be welcomed as it brings in a young work force, much required in Britain, which in turn will fuel industrial production and not to forget, there are more people this way to pay for the public services used. Many say that leaving EU will set Britain adrift as they are more secure currently being in the 28 country EU. The fear to go alone, the far reaching consequences will be the reason why many will not want to take this risk.
How will the winner get declared?
Unlike a general election, no minimum turnout is required – even if only three people came out to vote, the majority will be declared the winner. So post the referendum all votes will be counted, tallied and then majority wins. By 4 Am British time or 8.30 Am India time, we will know whether it is a “Leave” or “Remain”.
Has any other country ever left the EU?
None have left till date. But to point to a case of referendum, Greenland had held a referendum in 1982 to leave the EU's predecessor, European Economic Community (EEC) with 52% voting for a “leave”. In fact Britain had held a referendum in 1975 to leave or remain the EEC – that time over 67% of the people voted to “remain”.
If Britain decides to leave EU, how long will it take to demerge?
It would happen only in 2019 and till then Britain is expected to follow EU treaties and rules though it would have no say in the decision making processes of EU.
What happens on the morning of 24th if Brexit happens?
The British PM will make a statement and though Cameron has said that he will not quit even if “Leave” wins, he will have to as majority of the British have voted against his advice to stay. The British Pound would literally be pounded down to pulp and markets will crumble.
And if the “remain” wins, apart from a huge sigh of relief, life will back to routine with Yellen taking center stage again. The EU will fast track changes to the UK's membership negotiated by David Cameron earlier this year which includes curbs on in-work benefits for EU migrants, safeguards for sterling and an opt-out from ever closer union.
And what happens to India Inc if Brexit happens?
Immediate reaction would be panic, especially financial markets due to global upheaval and RBI is on stand-by to handle this contingency. India’s trade with Britain was worth $14 billion in FY16 and this could get affected. IT companies draw a lot of business and so does Tata Steel and Tata Motors – it could mean setting up facilities in EU countries.