MARKET WAITS AS DELHI GOES TO POLLS
By Ruma Dubey
“Daag achche hain” says a famous detergent tag line.
And we could not agree more. It’s good that there is so much “daag” on the ruling Govt today or else would we have so much change to look forward to?
The market has never waited with such bated breath for Assembly election results. There is so much hanging onto this verdict – the outcome of the assembly elections will largely show us what could happen in the Lok Sabha elections.
Just as some FIIs have more than vociferously declared that they would like a Modi Govt at the Center, people too are banking on a change. People around India are not worried about who will become the Chief Minister of Delhi or Chhattisgarh but more about who wins – BJP or Congress. In Delhi, Arvind Kejriwal and his AAP is force to contend with and if this party, debutant at that, manages to crack seats, it could change the entire dynamics of the Lok Sabha polls.
Historically, it has been seen that results of Assembly elections, if within six months of Lok Sabha elections, does give the right indication of things to come. Assembly polls were held in 2003 and Lok Sabha elections in 2004 and then the Assembly elections were in 2008 and general elections in 2009. Both, in 2003 and 2008, Congress was in majority in Delhi assembly and that reflected in the general elections in 2004 and 2009. Indian voters react differently when it comes to state and national polls is a myth and majority of the times, barring a few exceptions, like BJP winning assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh with clear majority in 2003 and 2008 but when it came to general polls, in both the years – 2004 and 2009, it lost seats there. So should we say that what happens in Delhi reflects on a national level? There are many who strongly feel this is so as Delhi is the national capital and given the number of people migrating there from various states, it is a representative of the national mood in many ways.
But this time around, depending on AAP’s performance in Delhi, if they decide to contest Lok Sabha too, we could see some interesting changes happening. In Delhi currently, it is no longer just about BJP and Congress, there is now a third angle.
The market and the people of India have as such forgotten there is still a ruling Govt at the center. The Parliament opens for its Winter Session tomorrow but this is a miniscule session of just 12 days, ending on 20th Dec. As such even if it was 40 days or more, nothing gets achieved so how does it being 12 days also matter. In fact it is better the session is small as some money of the tax payer can be saved. More importantly, people at this juncture do not have any expectations from either the Govt or its sessions. 29 bills await the nod and 5 new bills are to be introduced. But the market is now looking for a change and they know this Govt at this juncture, cannot do much to bring about any cheer. No wonder all eyes are on the exit polls, expected tomorrow. The poll results are scheduled for 8th Dec, Sunday, four days from today.
Yes, daag is good as long as you have the right means to clean them. Hopefully, we will be able to say that elections achche hain!