MARKET WAITS FOR THE RIGHT 'KICK'

By Ruma Dubey

When the market jumped up over 400 points some time ago, the adolescent in the house, growing up on a daily diet of bulls and bears asked, “why is the market up?”

The answer was easy then – the new Govt has come in and there is hope.

Now today, the adolescent once again asked, “the new Govt has come na, so why the markets down?”

If only the markets were as simple minded as that of a child, where it runs on one or two factors. Today, Modi Govt is there and continues saying the right things, yet the market is lackluster and looking at beyond these words.

There are quite a few ‘events’ lined up which will trigger this boring market – it should either speed up or come down; this in-between, don’t-know-where-to-go attitude is like the drip-drip rain – it gets you wet and road slushy, yet it’s not enough to soak you to the skin and not little enough to fold up the umbrella and put it away. Boring market like the boring rains!

Well, the market is actually waiting for more new cues. Currently, it is the earnings which are dictating the moods – the big movers and shakers on the bourses are all on the back of Q1 performances – Bharti Airtel is top gainer due to very good Q1 numbers and future prospects while L&T is top loser due to disappointing numbers and things looking muted in immediate short term. Thus today, the market is dominated by mirco-cues from India Inc.

There is also the Federal Reserve announcement expected late in the night. Another $10 billion reduction in QE is a given but the market will look for cues on a probable timeline for rate hike. Before that, the USA Q2 GDP numbers will also come in and that will set the mood for the night. A slew of data is coming from USA over the next 2-3 days and that will dominate the world markets.

Then on 5^th August we have our RBI meet and one will once again look at interest rates – rate cut is ruled out, we just have to watch out for a rate hike. That happening next week seems unlikely as the Governor might want to wait for the full monsoon report, take stock of kharif sowing , WPI and then come to a decision. So this August meet, in all likelihood will be status quo.

The crisis in Syria, Gaza and sanctions on Russia are worrisome. It is like a tinder box in that region. Surprisingly, crude price has held stable but how long is anyone’s guess. If and when crude starts rising, Govt could once again get onto sticky grounds. So keep a close watch on crude prices.

IIP does not really hold much sway over the markets anymore so to mark the date, 12^th August and expect it to be a major mover and shaker is naïve. Unless of course, there are wild gyrations in the June IIP – if it falls precipitously or rises illogically, only then will the market react.

15^th August, many are expecting the Prime Minister to announce some sops and these positive announcements, could help bring at least some of the bulls. Mark 6^th September – this is the day when the new Govt completes 100 days in office and this is the day when market is once again expecting some major policy announcements.

IMD reports on rains would also be a booster – rainfall deficit is expected to go down further but more crucial would be the kharif crop sowing and production data.

For now, let’s get ready for a late night to watch Janet Yellen……