NO-CONFIDENCE MOTION – MARKET HAS FULL CONFIDENCE!

By Ruma Dubey

There is a No-Confidence Vote scheduled in the Lok Sabha tomorrow.

But the market seems unmindful and seems to have full confidence that the vote will fall flat on the Opposition, helping reiterate BJPs power. At least that is what we read in the rise in Sensex and Nifty today morning.

The very fact that the BJP agreed to the floor test tomorrow means that it knows what is going to happen; or else would it have agreed?

If we look at the numbers stacked up, it is easy to understand why the BJP agreed. The current strength of the Lok Sabha is 534 ( 10 seats are vacant) and out of this, NDA on its own has 273 seats and with 41 allies, their total goes to 314. Even if we assume that the allies could be wishy-washy, the majority mark is 268 and BJP on its own, is way above this mark.

The BJP also does not see any threat from the 70 non-aligned MPs. This includes 37 MPs from AIADMK, 11 from TRS, 20 from BJD and 2 from NLD – they might not vote against the motion but might remain neutral, which in itself is a victory for the BJP.

So why did the BJP agree on this? In the Budget session, the Parliament proceedings were disrupted because they did not agree to smaller regional parties TDP and YSR Congress’s demand for no-confidence vote. But this time around, Congress has joined hands with them and with them in the picture, will the BJP miss an opportunity to further hurt? The Congress is once again playing with fire and the loss of this motion will only give further wind to the Modi wave.

This is actually a great move by the BJP – it once and for all ends this need for no-confidence motion thereby allowing the Parliament to function. This will prove to a great fodder for the 2019 elections but hope the Govt does not waste time gloating over the victory – no one likes an arrogant victor.

Having said all this, it is ultimately about how Modi wins the confidence of the people in 2019. They are currently hurting because of higher cost of living; Swachch Bharat has not really gone anywhere; the cultural divide has widened; unemployment remains a core issue; there is no real Income Tax relief; Make in India is rocky; GST is good and will take time to give back benefits but for now, people are angry; the demon of demonetization will haunt as black money stashing has not been stopped at all. Thus there are issues and it would be good if Modi could address these in his campaigns instead of spewing venom against the Congress – they are anyway facing an existential crisis, so why waste time on them? And the Modi Govt had also better hear the murmur of dissent among the people; that is what needs to be addressed first.

The no-confidence motion win will be a mere political victory; the real battle will begin only after that.