RAIN GODS - A BLESSING OR A CURSE THIS YEAR?
By Ruma Dubey
“Kaale megha, kaale megha, paani toh barsao”
Like Aamir Khan and his team of Lagaan, maybe its time for all of us to do and a song and dance to woo the rain Gods. Yet, will El Nino allow the monsoon to come?
Rain deficiency is a living nightmare for a country like India where over 60% of the population is directly or indirectly dependent on agriculture. And till now, this year, the rains have played truant. Though the IMD refuses to yet acknowledge the fact that there are dark clouds of trouble, the fact is indeed that we are in a precarious situation as far as rainfall is concerned. Till date, monsoon rainfall has been deficient in 82% of India's crop area, coming in 29% below long-term average in June alone.
As such the Indian economy is grappling under slower growth and rising inflation and if monsoon is low, things on the macro front could only get sticky. Lower rains will first and foremost mean lower food grain production and that will mean higher costs and more imports. This is the time when kharif crops are sown and kharif production accounts for around 57% of total agricultural production. Rice is one crop which could get affected as it is the most important food crop during the kharif season. Production of oilseeds and pulses could also get affected and this would mean that India, which is already the largest importer of cooking oil and lentils, will import more. And unfortunately, even before a shortfall is announced, speculators start playing on the prices, hoarding and artificially jacking up the prices. This speculation leads to not just high prices but it remains high even when it should ideally start tapering off. Thus the inflation caused due to shortfall in production has much longer term effect.
Rainfall deficiency will also lead to lower power output, mainly from hydro power as lower water levels will not allow enough power to get generated. This will also mean that farmers will have lesser money in hand and that in turn will affect the overall buying power in rural India – especially for white goods and to some extent FMCG products. But many say that will rapid urbanization and NREGA schemes, things might not be as bad as in 2009. There will be money in the hands of the farmer, surely lesser than what he might earn in a harvest but enough to survive and make ends meet.
India’s Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar says that there is not yet reason to worry as he states rainfall deficit would be covered in July and August. He says that India has comfortable foodgrain stocks after two successive years of bumper production and this will help cushion the impact of any shortfall this year. Somehow, he is a politician and in India, the word of a politician has no meaning, certainly no ring of truth. Thus to believe his words is naïve. On the other hand, the IMD has stuck to its predictions and is sure that rainfall will advance all over India and cover the deficiency but it has updated the forecast now to a 35% chance of becoming ‘below normal.” Like the politician, faith in IMD is very little or non existent. (Read Cover Feature, dated 21st June - https://www.sptulsian.com/article/67862)
Let us all hope and pray that this time around IMD and Sharad Pawar are right and the rain Gods come crashing, washing away all the troubles. Be a Hindu, Muslim or Christian, nature is one thing which unifies all and we all, irrespective of the race, religion, need rains. In unison, let us pray for the rains for the well being of India and Indians.