THE DANCE OF DEMOCRACY - MOVES WHICH LEAVE ALL GAPING

By Ruma Dubey

Supporters pouring gallons of milk on a huge picture of Jayalalitha. That’s so symbolic of how things work in Tamil Nadu. Film stars become politicians and are given God-like status.

The four state elections were a big eye opener today. In all aspects, even the BJP winning with a thumping victory in Assam, ending Gogoi’s 15-years of almost uncontested rule was huge. Call it anti-incumbency in Assam or anything else but all over people have voted for a change.

But the same logic does not hold true for Tamil Nadu where Amma was touted to lose unanimously in all the exit polls. Sun TV stock has moved like a yo-yo – up two days ago over 10% on exit polls predicting DMK and win today, becoming the biggest loser as AIADMK wins. So if all over people were voting for a change, how come Jaya came back? Well, if was a tossup between one devil or the other – people chose the lesser of the devils. The choice between Karunanidhi and Captain, another film star, Vijaykanth led People’s Welfare Front (PWF) was not really enticing. The DMK is still not able to beat its corrupt image and having a 91-going-on-92 leader was not really all that appealing. And that worked for Amma whose various welfare schemes were lauded. Though all her schemes bear the “Amma” tag, it did benefit the people directly – and that which touches the people directly at the grass root is what people will remember while going to vote. What use is development if the life of a man on the street does not change at all? That is where Amma made the difference. Now we hope that she stops this business of freebies (which seems to have worked), funds all such excesses from her party fund and urges her part workers to get to work. A small shower led to some parts of Chennai flooding – work on that front is needed on a war footing to avoid history repeating itself. The state’s fiscal debt has ballooned beyond control with state electricity boards and transport corporations in shambles. Yes, Jaya needs to bring in fiscal discipline or else, people will regret having voted her back to power.

Another big surprise for all of us here so far away from Kolkata was the once again thumping victory of TMC’s Mamata Banerjee. For all the wisdom and intellect which this City of Joy is known for, one simply could not wrap their minds as how come this lady is able to win, time and again and that too with such huge counts? Here too, the lack of choice is probably what leads her to win – 35 years of Left and nothing to show for – the West Bengal population just does not want it back. That left them with Congress and BJP – which are no options at all in tha State. Have they voted for a change? Well, surely a change from the Left but many say that Mamata did bring out some development. Building of roads, especially connecting rural regions is her victory. Also distribution of free bicycles to students under the Sabooj Sathi programme and arranging large campuses of farmer-direct agricultural markets touched people’s lives directly. Like Amma, Mamata’s projects were all very visible ones, promoting her and the TMC and once again like Amma, Mamata’s funding of many such freebie or subsidized projects are questionable. West Bengal Govt’s debt is gargantuan and nothing is being done to focus on that problem. Maybe she will work this term on correcting that and not on mere “visible” projects?

While Kolkata chucked away the Left, Kerala known as the “Red Flag” state voted it back as has always been the tradition. The puzzling aspect about this literate state voting for a Left when all over capitalism is at its peak is something of a paradox. Those in the state say that the Left was delivering on their promises, and that has convinced voters that antimarket sentiment is good for Kerala. The Left party blamed the BJP and Congress for going soft on big corporations and vowed to fight that –this sentiment resonated amongst the people of Kerala. The Left have pledged to expand the operations of Supplyco – Govt owned subsidized chain selling foods and other necessities. It also promised that PSUs that were shut down will be re-opened despite the fact that they were making losses with no networth to talk about. And the BJP promised employment through PPP route but the Left promised it through increasing the reach of Govt agencies. Ironically, almost every household there has a member working the Gulf or Middle East; so much so for employment within.

And BJP’s win in Assam was a given. Gogoi had to go – people really voted for a change there –a reflection of what people all around the country have done. It is a sign that its infleunce is growing well beyond north and west India. This win does not give BJP any leg-up to control Rajya Sabha where the opposition is blocking economic reforms. But for BJP, the fact that Congress has been weakened further is its victory.

So the main takeaways from this election – Congress is wiped out – if they did not know this earlier – this election reiterates this. At the same time, the internal numbers of the win shows that BJP is making some inroads into Kerala as well as West Bengal.  And in Assam, Former chief minister Prafulla Kumar Mahanta’s AGP is once again in the reckoning.

Well, these elections are over and done with. The leaders can now get their focus back on working for the people. The market does not care too much about these elections – it has now got its own issue to deal with – a rate hike by US in June seems imminent.