THE REFUGEE CRISIS - BIGGER THAN FALLING MARKETS

By Ruma Dubey

The heart wrenching sight of 3-year old Aylan’s body washed onto the shore, lying face down on the shores, water lapping his head, as though putting him to sleep, is probably the one picture which captures the entire turmoil of the refugee crisis.  Like the “Tank man” facing the armoured truck in Tiananmen Square in China or the “Afghan girl” on the cover page of National Geographic during the time of USSR  occupying Afghanistan; this small boy is symbolic of the Syrians fleeing their own country.

Imagine this. Overnight you realise that you have no alternate but to flee your own country, leave all your assets, your homes, your memories and everything which basically defined you behind and carry a bagful of things, and seek refuge in another country; begin life from scratch. It’s scary.

But that emotion – fear is what binds the Syrians together today. From being known as respectable citizens of Syria, they are today, literally, going from one country to other, seeking asylum; begging not only for food but for a life.

Why are they fleeing their own country? In a nutshell – ISIS or Daesh as it is known in Middle East, has taken over almost 50% of the country, more so in North.  The president of Syria, Bashar Hafez al-Assad is located in Southern Syria and he has plotted his “area”. This area is basically what he says now represents Syria; the rest – some taken over by Taliban and some by rebel groups apart from ISIS is what he has salvaged. This is area around Damascus. He has chalked out his area based on what his army can fight and protect. The rest he has said ISISI or whoever it is in charge can take; he does not have the money and people to fight. Now the fight is over a few square meters – they are not able to demarcate the “border” and that has intensified the battle, leading to Syrians from Southern parts also fleeing. Apart from Assad’s close aides and the very poor, who cannot afford the cost of migration are the ones left behind.  Iran is supporting Assad and so is Russia.

Assad is also not the good guy here. There is no good guy v/s bad guy fight here; it is bad v/s bad or worse v/s bad. Assad is himself guilty of war crimes and even before ISISI, the country was drowned in civil wars. With most of Syria's forces battling each other, it wasn't hard for ISIS to take advantage of the situation. ISISI is making inroads into Iraq too; it has already captured Ramadi.

Thus currently the entire Middle East is in turmoil.  The refugees are from all over – Libya, Iraq, Syria, South Sudan; there are also those escaping poverty, violence, oppression from Nigeria, Afghanistan, Somalia and Eritrea.

The number of refugees is currently estimated at more than 3,50,000- all seeking asylum in Europe.  Most want to head to Germany, not only because they feel it holds the promise of employment but because Germany said that it is open to taking in 8,00,000 refugees.  And the cost - Berlin might find itself spending as much as 10 billion euros in 2015 to feed, house and teach German to the new arrivals. UK has announced a large investment in humanitarian aid for those helping refugees in Syria, Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan. The European Union is planning to redistribute the people arriving to their continent amongst its 28 member countries.

Strangely, the Gulf countries, which are closer to the Middle Eastern refugees than Middle Eats remain mute spectators.  These countries – UAE, Kuwait, Saudi, Muscat, Qatar have some of the highest per capita incomes in the world, their newspapers cover the Syrian crisis on front page and leaders speak about their “fellowmen” in crisis in Syria. But how come they refuse to take in any refugees? It is because they feel another Arab sprint if they take in politically vocal refugees when they prefer passive population?  They are used to the Western countries helping out always; for them, taking a lead thus never comes naturally. The Gulf is today drawing sharp criticism from the world for its passive, on-looker role when it could do so much more. As someone rightly depicted this attitude, “if water spills over from a jar, they will stand and point fingers and look around, no one will get down to mopping it up.”

Pushed around by the world, with no country to call their home, the plight of refugees and many more such Aylan’s is the harsh reality of today. World Wars are over but these sights of refugees makes one wonder whether we are actually seeing victims of another world war, emerging from the Middle east.

No doubt, in the next decade the entire fabric of the Middle East, the way it is presented on geographical maps will undergo a huge change. And Europe might need to redraw the demography of its population.