TRIGGERS FOR JUNE - DESPERATELY SEEKING OPTIMISM

By Ruma Dubey

There is so much gloom and doom all around. Open any newspaper or any website, there is just an outpouring of despondency on all facets – economics, politics and social life. Today, there seems to be trouble brewing all around the world and intermittent news of earthquakes and train accidents further aggravates the matter. The doomsday supporters might be solemnly nodding their heads in unison, with an I-told-you-so expression. Those who predict the end of the world on 22nd Dec 2012 say that this economic bottom had to come as all this is a precursor to the end. 

For now, at least for those connected deeply with the market, yesterday’s GDP data was already like doomsday. And there is news of things getting worse. Downgrades, loan defaults, political infighting, strikes, anger, social unrest, falling sales, rising costs…..somehow all voices have joined together to collectively ambush the country with negativity.

Yes, right now things do not look very good but just as change is inevitable; a part of our lives, change always comes with its soul mate – hope.

Is there no hope right now? Well, if change is happening, there surely has to be hope. If the UPA does not work, does not know how to get out of this policy paralysis, there will be a change and that will bring hope.  Greece and Europe seems like a huge 10,000 piece jigsaw puzzle which will never get solved. But there also a change is happening and we have no option but to bear the brunt of the pain of change. 2008 happened and we sailed through then; very naively thinking that we have crossed the most tumultuous part of the ocean. But that was just the beginning of a storm and today, we are in the middle of it.

When the big picture looks bleak and you are looking for hope, it is best to have targets or triggers for the short term. And that’s what we will give you here; small things to look forward to which may or may not exactly be positive but triggers nevertheless.

1: Look skywards and pray for rains. Kaale megha, kale megha, paani toh barsao…..

Monsoon is delayed by a few days now. It is expected to hit the coast of Kerala, the first place in India to get rainfall, by mid of next week as against the earlier prediction of 1st June. The Japanese had already warned that India will have a sub normal monsoon this year but our IMD pooh-poohed this report and sticks to its prediction of a normal monsoon. Hope IMD, despite its dubious track record is proven right. Normal monsoon will invigorate overall growth with two-third of India’s population dependent on agriculture.

2: The Greece Elections on June 17th

From skywards, let’s look West. The much awaited elections in Greece are scheduled for 17th June and though consensus is that this time too there will no decision, lets hope some results do emerge, even out of this hung Parliament.  And if a clear mandate does emerge, hope is that the new government will renegotiate Greece’s bailout package which in turn will clam frayed nerves world over. And if Greece exits, then the rupee could fall to new lows. Hopefully, NRIs will repatriate bags full of money and that, might actually save India. That is how the property markets are surviving today.

3: The Credit Policy on 18th June

Rate cut, CRR cut, hopes are abound. There is also talk of RBI floating something akin to the Millennium Bonds and there rumours of RBI finally selling dollars directly to oil importers at a fixed rate. Any such policy decisions will spur hope of some revival.

4: The Govt wakes up…

This has no timeline as one does not know when the deep slumber will be over. But word on the street is that the Govt is waiting for the Presidential elections to get over and once that is done, might push its way through FDI in aviation. Hope its clears infra projects, especially power projects stuck in a limbo for some time now. Any policy decision, even small one, will indicate that the Govt has woken up and that will kindle hopes.

5: April IIP scheduled for 12th June

Well, at this juncture there are really no expectations and that is a good thing. Even a slight spike up would improve sentiments. The HSBC PMI for April was up at 54.9 in from 54.7 in March and now in May, it had slipped marginally to 54.8. Maruti and TVS today reported lower sales though M&M reported higher. 5.3% GDP for Q4 was a shocker and after that, we are prepared for the worst, at least till end of first half of FY13.

We desperately need some positive triggers. There is a complete lack of confidence and this sentiment of despondency needs to change. After all, market is all about sentiments and hopefully, this dark patch will end soon. But let us keep the conviction that there is a churn happening in India, a slow transformation and the Indian economy is slowing but will not come to a grinding halt.