WILL IMD SAY "NO" TO EL NINO?

By Ruma Dubey

The hero’s entire family might be on the death bed or the heroine might have lost her home and entire savings, yet, the immediate dialogue which will be uttered with complete predictability, “ sab theek ho jayega!” But can the IMD afford to say mouth this inane dialogue time around?

IMD will issue its first monsoon prediction by end of this month but long before that, early April, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said that the chance of an El Nino weather event developing in 2014 now exceeds 70%, raising the prospect of damaging floods and droughts across the globe.

And today, private forecaster, Skymet announced that India is likely to receive below-normal rainfall between June and September, the main monsoon months, as the El Niño evolves with the warming of the Central and East Pacific Ocean. It forecast monsoon rainfall this year at 94% of the long period average (LPA) of 896 mm rainfall – it said that rainfall will be staggered, rainfall will arrive in Kerala in time and deficient rain could be seen across northwest and west central India. There is 0% chances of excess rain, 25% chances of a drought, 34% of normal rain and 40% chance of below-normal rains. But the most optimistic part of this not-so-optimistic report is that as of now, there do not seem be any chances of a 2009-like drought situation this year. Whew!

Skymet has said that there is only 30% chance of El Nino evolving, which is in direct contrast to Australia’s 70% verdict and US Climate prediction Center prediction of 50%. IMD’s verdict is expected next week – if it says ‘normal’ please wait until July to blow the victory conch.

Prior to this, three more times, IMD has gone ahead and predicted normal monsoon when there have been droughts. In 2002, 2004 and then 2009, IMD stuck to its normal estimation while the country reeled under severe drought. 2009 was probably one of the worst droughts and even in June, IMD stuck to its normal note. In 2002, the difference between what the IMD had predicted and the actual rainfall was a deficiency of 20%, in 2004 the gap was a deficiency of 13% and in 2009, it was at 18%.

Does this mean that IMD just does not know to predict a drought when it see’s one? Or is it that though it see’s the drought, it is asked to turn a blind eye?  Firstly, IMD is still upgrading its technology. It has now tied up with weather offices of Britain, USA, Japan, Australia, and South Korea. It is getting more radars and observatories while going through a complete overhaul of its mathematical model. It has also collaborated with the National Centre for Ocean Information Services, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, and the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting. By 2017, IMD is hopeful of giving more accurate monsoon predictions.  So what is means is that till then, we will kind of shoot in the dark, hoping to hit the target purely on luck and gut feel.

But what is also coming forth is that when there is a drought, the IMD is “asked” to present a “normal” picture. The IMD scientists are immense pressure to always show a positive story even if the model they are staring at shows a depressing story. In 2009, a scientist of IMD stated that though the model indicated that rainfall was 90%, indicating a drought, IMD had to yet give out a 93% forecast . The IMD, a day before the estimation goes public, send it to the PMO and the a few secretaries of some ministries and the department was told to “temper” it down.

The Govt and IMD, as much as possible, do not give out drought predictions as it could lead to a panic situation and in most cases, leads to hoarding, pushing up the prices even before the effects of drought are actually felt. Yes, a drought prediction in advance could help farmers prepare themselves better but the effect of hoarding is said to be even worse.

We Indians do not like bad news; always want “happy endings”. And the IMD sometimes plays on this. That is morally wrong but it is better than bearing the ill effects of telling the truth. So when IMD says ‘normal’ monsoon, cheer but also understand “why always normal?”