By Ruma Dubey

Almost all the metal stocks today are in the red and that is enough – the very same people who were talking about new, unbelievable and illogical new highs for the market are now urging us to run for cover. The doomsayers are back in action.  

Usually, when such talks start, the market starts to lose ground soon, with the coterie of those running for cover outstripping those wanting to get in. But this time around, today especially, there isn’t really any road rollicking good news, we are hearing only about an ‘imminent fall’. But the market has apparently decided to take this on the chin, play it with complete nonchalance. The market is in the red but just about a toe into the red; almost like it is anticipating something which will help it run back into the deep green.

Based on past experience, such views would have sent the market further down but this time around, it seems to be holding its steed. Maybe the big trigger which the market now awaits is Modi’s visit to USA, where as usual, the market expects him to make major announcements, with regards to his famous ‘Make in India’ program. The sops which he may promise for this, many say, is what the market is eagerly waiting for.

On the other hand, metal prices are indeed falling on the London Metal Exchance (LME). As per data from Wall Street Journal, nickel, zinc, copper are down. Brent crude future is also down, at is lowest since June-12. Cotton prices slipped to 5-year low and all this, you can safely blame it on the Chinese.

Data from HSBC Manufacturing Index for September for China was not bad. Compared to the slowdown in August at 50.2, it rose just by a fraction to 50.5 - blink and you might have missed the rise. But more than this, metal markets were spooked by the Chinese Finance Minister’s comment wherein he said that there would be no immediate change in its economic policies though there were signs of a weak growth. This, the markets construed as a precursor to China missing is growth target of 7.5% for full current year. Naturally, metals shook as tremble as China is the largest consumer of metals. More so, anticipating a sharp bounce back, miners actually increased production and that means even a marginal fall in Chinese growth rate could mean a glut.

At the same time, many see this fall in metal prices to be temporary; a knee jerk reaction, most still expect demand to outstrip supply as we move into 2015. Wells Fargo Advisors has in fact gone ahead and increased his funds exposure to commodities as it expects growth from USA and Europe to balance the slower growth from China.

Having said this, it would also be prudent to keep a watch on the development in Syria as the news is that USA and some Middle East countries launched air strikes in the region ravaged by ISIS. This escalating into a war, which the world can most certainly not afford, would not be good and that it putting things, very lightly – jorka jhatka dheere se.

Thus for now, the Indian markets seem to have shut itself, not react either way to these mixed signals. Its focus is now only within – almost meditative. And when India looks within, she see’s immense opportunities for growth. That is what is keeping the floor intact under our Indian markets currently.

And if you have amassed all fundamentally strong stocks, like the one’s mentioned in our Stock Recommendation section, is there really any cause for worry about these ups and downs?