YEH RE YEH RE PAUSA, TULA DETO PAISA.....
By Ruma Dubey
Ganga, the domestic help carries about her work with a crease of worry over her forehead. Her shoulders seem weighed down and she looks like a defeated woman.
Getting out from the haze of the constant media coverage on Peter Mukerjea and his dysfunctional family, when asked Ganga about her opinion on the same; she look nonplussed and asks who were we talking about, saying that the world on TV is unreal when the real news is something else.
Noticing her stress, when quizzed about the cause for her worry, she looked skywards, towards the ceiling and perennially whirring fan and said, “ Rains….there are no rains. In my village, I have borrowed money to buy seeds and sown kharif crops but rains have played truant and today, all those seeds lay wasted. Money wasted. How will we get through the year? In Latur, my hometown, water stock will run out completely on September 15 if rains do not oblige. Where will we get drinking water from?”
For us, shortage of rain becomes evident only if taps run dry or if veggies start becoming costly. But for majority of India, this year’s lack of rain is the main cause of worry and not who murdered whom and who duped whom. It’s a question of survival for most while we city people are obsessed about a girl dead three years ago.
Setting priorities right, ideally, we all, the entire country should rightfully be worried like Ganga, about the lack of rains. If we don’t produce enough foodgrains from where are we going to get food? Imported, like the onions?
As we get into September, the peak monsoon period, which is usually August is over and there has been a 11% overall deficit with August alone recording a 22% less than normal rainfall. This exceeds IMDs estimates – it has predicted around 16% deficiencies during August and September. Marathwada and central regions of Maharashtra have recorded -50 to -40% rains and there, farmers are staring at a drought. North Karnataka too is experiencing drought like situation.
At the same time, farmers have not stopped sowing as hope springs eternal. So kharif crop sowing is actually up marginally despite these dismal rainfall numbers. Kharif crops are sown during April-July, and harvested by October, with the most important Kharif crop being paddy. On the other hand, Rabi or winter crops, are sown between October to February and harvested by June. And the most important rabi crop is wheat.
This is the time of the year when we assess the sowing of kharif crops – the more area covered, the more will be the harvest. As at 28th August 2015, total area sown under kharif crops has reached to 967.83 lakh hectares as compared to 956.93 lakh hectare last year at this time, up over 1%. Take a look at the table given below to see how much each crop has been sown and we realise that the increase is not all that much. Cotton has gone down and so has jute while rice and sugarcane remain almost static. Pulses have shown a 12% increase, the biggest increase amongst all crops.
The Department of Agriculture had released the fourth Advance production estimates of major crops during 2014-15 and report too is not very optimistic. Total foodgrains production in the country is estimated at 252.68 million tonnes which is lower by 12.36 million tonnes than the last year’s record foodgrains production of 265.04 million tonnes. All grains and pulses, cereals, all are estimated to show a drop in production.
The only good news here is that the Govt was pre-empted by IMDs earlier predication and has taken some mitigating steps. It has approved a series of farmer friendly interventions in the wake of deficient rainfall as per IMD forecast of below average monsoon.
Following interventions/measures are to be initiated by State governments in the eventuality of drought deficit rainfall situation:
a) Implementation of Diesel Subsidy Scheme for protective irrigation of crops with an allocation of Rs. 100 crore;
b) Enhancement of ceiling on seed subsidy to partially recompense the farmer for the additional expenditure incurred in resowing and purchasing appropriate varieties of seeds;
c) Implementation of drought mitigating interventions on perennial horticulture crops with an additional allocation of Rs. 150 crore under Mission for Integrated Development of Horticulture (MIDH);
d) Implementation of Additional Fodder Development Programme (AFDP) as a sub-scheme of Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana (RKVY) with an allocation of Rs. 50 crore during 2015-16 for ensuring availability of fodder;
But are these really enough given the scale of hectares under cultivation and farmers involved in agriculture? These schemes which the Govt has chalked out are expected to cost some Rs.300 crore. Is that enough even by a rough estimate?
Truly speaking, drought is a management issue. The Govt can mitigate the effect of a deficient rain if it has enough foodgrains stored and takes care of its farmers. But saying that it will not push up prices is being naïve.
The crisis in Marathwada is huge. Wells have dried up across 8 districts, storage is down to less than 8%, as residents trudge long distances and officials brace for worst drinking water crisis in 40 years. How does the Govt provide drinking water there?
As we get ready to welcome Lord Ganesha this month, we can only hope and pray that September helps recoup the deficit in rainfall. A rich harvest and normal monsoon is the lifeblood of India and let us hope and pray that rains do come pouring down this week. Or else we are in for a very dry, long haul, which no proactive Govt can help. Without agriculture, there would be no city, stock market, banks, university, temple or even an army. Agriculture is the foundation of civilization and a stable economy built on the edifice of bountiful rains.