Drought is official?

India is experiencing the first back-to-back drought in three decades, after El Nino disrupted the progress of the monsoon, while raw sugar futures surged to a 2-month high. Data from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) shows that the rains over the June-September monsoon period were just 86% of their normal level. The department had previously forecast the monsoon at 88% of its normal strength. A shortfall of monsoon rains by more than 10% is classified as a severe drought.

This is the driest monsoon since 2009, and the first time two sub-90% monsoons have come in succession for three decades. As of last week, water levels at India's 91 main reservoirs were down to 60% of capacity, from 75% as of last year, and below the 77% 10-year average.

Everything now depends on how well the Govt manages this year of drought. If food management is right, we will have no big cause for worry. But water cuts are a surety as we look ahead at almost a year with low water levels. Surely, El Nino would be the most hated name amongst the farmers. And yes, looks like in the battle between private sector weather forecaster, Skymet and PSU, IMD, for once, the Govt agency seems to have got the prediction right. So next time we make jokes about IMD’s predictions, we better think twice as things seems to have changed for the good.