TCS or RIL - M Cap topper on 31-3-2021?

Market has started speculating that who will be market cap topper on 31-3-2021. Excatly 1 year back (which is not factoring in Covid price volatility) TCS was ruling at Rs.2,200 and now at Rs. 3,078, giving a return of 40% in 1 year. RIL was ruling at Rs. 1,480 and now at Rs. 2,080, gave a gain of 40% too. Dividend of Rs. 29 plus 1 share buy back by TCS, in last 1 year is not factored in, as same is netted off against RIL dividend of Rs. 6.50 and Rights issue.

TCS M cap is now at Rs. 11.53 lakh crore and RIL at Rs. 13.20 lakh crore (excluding RIL PP M cap of Rs. 50,000 crore), means a gap of Rs. 1.67 lakh crore. TCS is seen 14.5% behind RIL or RIL is seen 12.65% ahead of TCS. Looking to the weak bias of RIL in last 6 months and conversly strong bias of TCS, if RIL corrects by 7% and TCS rise by 7%, TCS will be at No. 1 slot.

Promoter stake in TCS of over 72%, coupled with Institutional holding of 24%, leaves 4% retail float. In RIL Promoter stake of 50.54%, with institutional holding of 38%, leaves 11% retail float. This is seen an advantage in favour of TCS as well, as FIIs are seen moving from RIL to TCS in last 4-5 months, as IT sector is seen preferred sector of FIIs. RIL between 21-1-21 to 29-1 -21, in 6 trading days, fell by over 13% from Rs.2,120 to Rs.1,830. TCS between 7-1-21 to 25-1 -21, in 13 trading days, rose by about 10% from Rs.3,040  to Rs.3,340, which shows the Beta characterstic of both stocks. This implies that RIL is now ruling at high from its recent lows while TCS is ruling at low from its recent high.

It will be interesting to note that on 16-9-20, RIL M cap was at Rs. 15.02 lakh crore, while TCS had it at Rs. 9.38 lakh crore. So data, price trend, statistics, and bias are seen loaded in favour of TCS for this top slot on coming 31st March. Keeping fingers crossed.