Indigo is facing a lot of rough weather, the risks of running an airline. Geopolitical tensions, crude price, rupee depreciation, war clouds; so many issues which impact the smooth running of an airline.

Indigo is currently facing turbulence as is the entire country and the market post the Pahalgam incidence.

There is no direct impact on the airline but now the impact of Pakistan closing down its airspace is big as this will mean that flights will have to rerouted and this itself is a big cost.

Let’s estimate conservatively, assuming:

• 20 to30 key flights/day are rerouted
• Extra flying time per flight: 30 mins, which means 500–600 kg extra fuel per flight
• Cost per rerouted flight/day: Rs.1.5 to 2 lakh
• Daily impact: Rs.40 to 60 lakh
• Monthly impact: Rs.12 to 18 crore

It is widely estimated that, even on a minimum, this disruption could carry on for 1to 2 months and this means a minimum material impact of Rs.25 to 30 crore. If we are to go by the experience of Phulwama, then these restrictions could extend over 3 months and like last time, Indigo could face a whammy of Rs.50 to 60 crore. This is sure to start showing in the Q1FY26 earnings.

Little wonder then that the stock is pummelled today; it opened less than 1% lower at Rs.5487.95 but once news of the airspace being shut down came in, the stock zoomed down 6% to Rs.5198.70; it has recovered a bit and is now trading at Rs.5369 levels.